18. Violence is my Busines ...

... and if there was no violence I'd be out of business, or at least need to work out what else to do. So, you'd think with all the stuff in the media about Britain being "Violent, Lawless and Broken", I'd be over the moon. Lots of new opportunities for work. Well, as it happens I do have more work than I can take on, but not because society is becoming increasingly violent - but because that is the perception.

Take a guess. When do you think violent crime started to rise? Now take a guess at how much it has risen since the year 2000 - 20%, 30%, 50%, 100%? More? Maybe, it's a bit more nuanced? Maybe some forms of crime are rising faster than others? How about knife crime? We hear a lot about that ... and what about all those immigrants?

This is what we hear through social media and our politicians too. Talk to the person on the street and you will hear variations upon "Oh it's terrible, I'm frightened to out on the street anymore." I have no doubt that they are. It is, however, perception rather than reality. When was the last time you were threatened with violence? For some of you it may have been recent and traumatic but for most the honest answer would be either a long time ago, or never.

Let's go back to the question about when violent crime started to rise. Obviously in the very short term, there fluctuations. If we look at anything over say a 5-year period, the answer is that the incidence of violent crime has never risen. Ever since records were first kept, violent crime has been falling. Few of us can think back that far. Let's restrict ourselves to the last 25 years - a period with replete with all kinds of economic and social problems.

First of all, let's look at crime in general. This excludes internet scams and non-victim based crimes - as they are mostly perpetrated from outside the UK and are no reflection of our society.

Amazingly, we discover overall crime within England and Wales has more than halved between 2000 and 2024! This is not what we are told! These figures are based on the Crime Surveys set up by Margaret Thatcher to give a true reflection of what is going on rather than police convictions which are not representative. None-the-less, it is reasonable to argue that people don't always tell the truth. I'll come back to that later.

What we are interested here, however, is violent crime. It's one thing shoplifting or fiddling your tax return (I advocate neither) and quite another violently assaulting another person. Let's see:

Okay, it's a bit more up and down, but overall there's 50% less violent crime than there was in 2000. The trend is also clearly downward and the fluctuations are minimal and less aligned with specific UK events and more so with highly complex global changes.

People worry about the safety of their property. Burglary and car theft in particular. Look below, these have reduced by way over half! I am a cyclist (and driver) and bike theft is a constant concern (some of these bikes are worth over £10,000). Yet bike theft has also halved since 2000! Terrible times ...

So maybe it's not so much these "serious" crimes that create the impression, but rather the low level anti-social behaviour that blights us? It, seems not. Obviously there are parts of our communities that are blighted by anti-social behaviour, social intimidation, drug misuse, gangs - but, as we see below, it was always worse!

The Crime Surveys are independent of government or commercial influence and administered by the most sophisticated analysts and take into every variable possible and every objection that you or I can raise. Except one. That is that is still reliant on what they are told. So, we know conviction rates are unreliable - most crime is under-reported and often not followed through.

However, if we are talking about violent crime - a return to our primary purpose - we have the NHS data to corroborate or otherwise the Crime Surveys. Let's have a look! From 2000-2007 it doesn't look good. That could be attributed to many global factors and possibly the fall from grace of the labour party. Since then the trend has been consistently and dramatically downward.

Now let's look at knife crime. This was a problem in 2000 and got worse, especially in 2007 and 2018-20. Since it has continued to come down. Still we are at the lowest level since 2000!

Things are getting better all the time and this is not because of politicians. it is because people demand ever better services and expectations are higher, because the internet provides access to information for all, because parents are better, because schools, prisons, shops, cafes, community and voluntary services are better - and people are better!

Some things are worse, however. Online scamming is on the rise, internet bullying also, shoplifting and snatch crimes. Bad things happen, they always have. Today I can walk around King's Cross and feel safe - in 1970 it felt dangerous.

I'll show one more graph, then shut up. Today as I read the news, it's the same as it's been for years - illegal immigrants crossing on boats. What is the effect of these immigrants on crime?

Take a look! If you want to reduce crime, you would have to kick the Brits out - and/or accelerate immigration.

Politicians, journalists and social media mouthpieces will twist this stuff in any which way they choose. I hope you can decide what you believe without them messing your mind up.

Iain